The compromising error

This year, Marquez has shown in several occasions to be dangerous and to be able to limit the damages in negative weekends. It seems this concept doesn't arrive to Yamaha and his riders. Despite they have less technical problems than anybody else out there with the Michelin, they are the ones that make more mistakes and serious.

The picture of the championship before the Sachsenring GP was clear: the gap between them and the leader Marquez required an attack strategy. On the wet Valentino is more competitive then Marc, indeed he got several important seconds in the first part of the race he would have to keep. However he risked ignoring the written "BOX" of the staff and decided to follow the strategy of Dovizioso, who was leading the race at that moment but not worrying at all.
Rossi believes that even if he was entered 2 or 3 laps before, nothing would be changed. WRONG! Marquez wag gaining from 5 to 7 seconds per lap and entering even 1 lap before would change everything.

What nobody was expecting was a so aggressive strategy by Honda which had nothing to lose but to defend instead. They played a risky card mounting the slicks in a moment where the track was not completely dry. This makes the difference. Watching this move, Yamaha would have to copy, not to think.
The combination Rossi-Yamaha made a series of mistakes which compromised and thrown away an entire weekend and probably the championship. I talk about "combination" because Valentino is the one who decides when to box, but Yamaha is the one that decides which setup to put on the second bike and they decided for the intermedium one.

This remember me Misano 2015. In a very similar situation the Yamaha riders opted for an absurd strategy where they were practically the only ones on the track with a wet setup on a dry asphalt. The swapping was delayed like in this case. The race concluded with the crash by Lorenzo and the 5th place for Rossi. I supposed the learnt something from that weekend.

From what I see, in general, better to arrive always second than to win and make unforgivable and avoidable mistakes. Marquez is deserving this title at 100% so far.

Sachsenring 2016 - After race analysis

The rain causes always mess, especially when not constant during the race. In this particular case, it stopped in the second half of the race, drying the circuit and creating overheating problems to the wet tires. However there were only a couple of crashes, fortunately. 
Let's take a look to the race arrival list with the gaps from the leader

Marquez started with few issues which made loosing him time and positions. Then he saved from crash himself after probably a lost of grip, going wide in the gravel. He looked done for a while. Honda chose for a great strategy and called Marc into the box to swap the bike with the slick tires on it (medium for the rear and soft for the front). We know Marquez is able to manage tough situations by the way, indeed he started to go really fast getting 5 seconds per lap on the leading group Rossi-Dovizioso-Crutchlow that decided to enter a bit too late. He arrives with almost 10 seconds of advantage on the second, going to +48 on Lorenzo and +59 on Rossi.

Crutchlow got the same tyre set of Marquez, like any Honda rider. He is so fast that's able to overtake the competitive Ducati ridden by Dovizioso few laps before the checking flag. No mistake, precise and effective. It was a long time we didn't see him like that.

Dovizioso, despite his worries before the weekend, ran a good race. Probably he would make a better result if Ducati had opted for the slick set like Honda, instead of the inter-medium set. However he concluded third and not so far away from the lead.

Rossi shows his ability on the wet once again, staying together with the fast Ducatis of Petrucci and Dovizioso, toiling a bit. Then he receive the communication "BOX". Of course Yamaha monitored Marquez's rhythm after the swapping and started to worry. In a contrast with a strategy based on attack against the championship leader Marquez, coping his movement, he opted to defend the second position following the leader Dovizioso, entering in the box few laps later, compromising the advantage he got. He comes back with the inter-medium set, like Dovizioso, and the bikes goes bad, really bad. It starts only at the end to get confidence but it's too late and Valentino has been overtaken by several riders. He concluded eighth. Sorry to say this, but this is a completely wasted weekend that adds to the other fails of the season. The championship is too far by now.

Lorenzo has been totally absent like in the last GP. He really doesn't like the wet.

I spend just a word for the poor Petrucci who leads the race for few laps before to crash in the gravel. His ability on the wet are visible and he is one of the most competitive Ducati riders. What a pity.
What a pity also for Pedrosa who shown to be fast this weekend and loves this track.

This is the end of the first part of the season. Next Gp in Austria on the 14th of August.

Sachsenring 2016 - Qualifying

The Sachsenring circuit is very short, only 3 turns going right, 2 of them very slow and 1 very fast (the famous turn n.12, called also n.11). The remaining left corners are 11 (the second and the third ones can be counted together). 

Due to its conformation, the riders arrive at turn 12 with the right side of the tyre "cold" or not in temperature because they have no opportunity to warm that up. Michelin took that question seriously and brought new asymmetric tires for this weekend which should help the riders to arrange the problem.

Lorenzo has been protagonist of several crashes in these days and failed the time-lap because he destroyed both the motorcycles before the flag. Rossi and Marquez are definitely more in shape and costant. 

Marc took several risks, instead Valentino seems more comfortable on the bike even if he has still to learn how to avoid the traffic during qualifying. He had the potential to do a better time-lap.  

Other protagonists have been Vinales, Iannone, Pol Espargaro and Barbera fast in qualifying session but even in free practices. Real big pity for Pedrosa who likes this track and knows it very well.

1. Marc Marquez ESP Repsol Honda Team (RC213V) 1.21.160s
2. Hector Barbera ESP Avintia Racing (Desmosedici GP14.2) +0.412s
3. Valentino Rossi ITA Movistar Yamaha MotoGP (YZR-M1) +0.506s
4. Danilo Petrucci ITA Octo Pramac (Desmosedici GP15)  +0.506s
5. Pol Espargaro ESP Monster Yamaha Tech 3 (YZR-M1)  +0.578s
6. Maverick Viñales ESP Team Suzuki Ecstar (GSX-RR) +0.624s
7. Andrea Dovizioso ITA Ducati Team (Desmosedici GP) +0.698s
8. Aleix Espargaro ESP Team Suzuki Ecstar (GSX-RR) +0.723s
9. Andrea Iannone ITA Ducati Team (Desmosedici GP) +0.730s
10. Dani Pedrosa ESP Repsol Honda Team (RC213V) +0.732s

Let's take a look also to the 2015 finishing arrival:

1 25 93 Marc MARQUEZ SPA Repsol Honda Team Honda 41'01.087
2 20 26 Dani PEDROSA SPA Repsol Honda Team Honda +2.226
3 16 46 Valentino ROSSI ITA Movistar Yamaha MotoGP Yamaha +5.608
4 13 99 Jorge LORENZO SPA Movistar Yamaha MotoGP Yamaha +9.928

 

Previews for the weekend

Despite I scanned the news everyday, nothing of particular happened. This is the reason why i wrote nothing so far and I'm going to write few things now.

Finally we're back to race and after this weekend we're going to have a long break to start again in middle August.

Last news were about the unexpected victory by Miller, an unforgivable and resounding crash by Rossi, a good defending race by Marquez and a boring and worrying race by Lorenzo.

This particular GP has not so many front-runner: Marquez is the first and probably the only one. If we look at his main antagonists in the championship (the Yamaha riders), Honda got a quite picture.

Lorenzo never won in Germany. He is also the only rider who frankly speaks about the issues with the tires, especially with the front one.

Back in 2009, Rossi won his last race there. However, this time he is particularly determined and ready, like his teammate. Most of all this year we have the variable of the tires which changes the situation completely.

Dovizioso is really worried and says this track is not enough good for Ducati. I wouldn't expect nothing special by him anyway (since the last fail in Assen). It's a long time he's trying and he never concluded anything relevant so far.